Forecasting export and import of wheat in Syria using time series

Authors

  • Mohmad Akroush Tishreen University
  • Wessam Al Gasem Tishreen University

Abstract

 The aim of this study was to forecast an export and import of wheat in Syria during 2019-2025 using ARIMA models of  time series during period  2000-2018 . The main results were: -The time series for the export of wheat in Syria for the period 2000 - 2018 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences.

- ARIMA (1,1,2) model, which is the suitable model to forecast an export of wheat, and expected export will reach to 211.89 ton thousand in 2025.

-The time series for the import of wheat in Syria for the period 2000 - 2018 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences.

- ARIMA (0,1,2) model, which is the suitable model to forecast an import of wheat, and expected import will reach to 462.45 ton thousand in 2025.

 

 

 

 

 

Author Biographies

Mohmad Akroush , Tishreen University

 Professor, Department Of Statistical And Programming

Wessam Al Gasem, Tishreen University

Postgraduate- Student, Department Of Statistical And Programming

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Published

2022-01-17

How to Cite

1.
عكروش م, الجاسم و. Forecasting export and import of wheat in Syria using time series. Tuj-econ [Internet]. 2022Jan.17 [cited 2024Nov.25];43(6):195-210. Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/econlaw/article/view/11530

Issue

Vol. 43 No. 6 (2021): Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences

Section

Master student researches

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