Conduct Stability and Co-Integration tests in the presence of Structural Break- Points -An Econometrics study of the relationship between investment and the development of manufacturing industry in Syria-

Authors

  • Fater Ali Tishreen University
  • Mohammad Saker Tishreen University

Abstract

 

This research aims to study the role of investment, in the development of the manufacturing industry in Syria, through a set of indicators and statistical data for the industry, this study showed that investment a significant role adult impact in the industry, by applying the "Gregory-Hansen" methodology, which allows for structural breaks, which are the years that occurred It contains important changes in the direction of the variables as a result of certain events that affected the economy - which, if applied correctly, leads to obtaining stable time series with one or more intervals, as well as reaching statistically sound standard models.

The previous methodology was applied to the time series of the public expenditures and total investment variables in Syria, by setting the first as an independent variable and the second as a dependent variable for a period of time that extends from the years before the economic crisis that Syria is going through until the crisis period itself, i.e. the period [2000-2017].The study reached results, the most important of which are: Obtaining stable time series for public spending and total investment in Syria with structural intervals (years) defined by a statistical method. Also, there is a moral co-integration relationship between public spending and total investment, even during the years of the economic crisis in Syria.

 the study also showed that the decline in investment had a negative impact on all industry indicators manufacturing in Syria

 

 

 

 

 

Keywords: investment, manufacturing, "Gregory-Hansen" Methodology.

Downloads

Published

2023-05-31

How to Cite

1.
فاطر علي, محمد صقر. Conduct Stability and Co-Integration tests in the presence of Structural Break- Points -An Econometrics study of the relationship between investment and the development of manufacturing industry in Syria-. Tuj-econ [Internet]. 2023May31 [cited 2024Nov.25];45(2):251-69. Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/econlaw/article/view/13800

Issue

Vol. 45 No. 2 (2023): Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

  • The authors retain the copyright and grant the right to publish in the magazine for the first time with the transfer of the commercial right to Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences

     Under a CC BY- NC-SA 04 license that allows others to share the work with of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal. Authors can use a copy of their articles in their scientific activity, and on their scientific websites, provided that the place of publication is indicted in  Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences   .  The Readers have the right to send, print and subscribe to the initial version of the article, and the title of Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Publisher

  • journal uses a CC BY-NC-SA license which mean

    You are free to:

    • Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
    •  
    • The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

  • Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.

  • NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.

  • ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.

  • No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.