محددات التجارة الخارجية السورية مع دول بريكس وفق نموذج الجاذبية
Abstract
يحتل قانون الجاذبية في التجارة أهمية كبيرة في تفسير محددات التجارة الخارجية للدول، سواء في العلاقات التجارية الثنائية أو الإقليمية أو الدولية، وإن متطلبات تطوير التجارة الخارجية السورية يقتضي إيجاد منافذ جديدة لها، لذلك تناولت هذه الدراسة تطبيق نموذج الجاذبية على التجارة الخارجية السورية مع دول مجموعة بريكس، لتحليل محددات هذه العلاقة، باستخدام بيانات مقطعية لخمس دول وخلال الفترة الممتدة من عام 1980 ولغاية عام 2015. وتوصل البحث إلى أهمية كل من الحجم الاقتصادي المتمثل بالناتج المحلي الإجمالي للدول المدروسة في زيادة حجم التجارة الخارجية السورية إلى تلك الدول، وأن المسافة الاقتصادية والجغرافية من أهم قيود نمو التجارة الخارجية السورية مع دول بريكس.
Gravity model in trade is the most important factor in analyzing international trade determinants in bilateral، regional or international trade relationship between countries. Developing of Syrian external trade requires finding new outlets. For that, this research discusses the determinants of Syrian international trade with BRICS countries by gravity model، using panel data for five counties and period from 1980 to 2015.
The research proofed several facts including: the big scale of countries economy increase trade with BRICS countries، but both of economic and geographic distance between Syria and BRICS countries decrease scale of Syrian international trade with these countries.
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