Nowcasting As An Approach To Mitigate Economic Uncertainty In Syria

Authors

  • Yomn Mansour Tishreen University
  • Roula Ismail Tishreen University
  • Khder Alakkari Tishreen University

Abstract

Economists suffer from incomplete knowledge of the current state of the economy, because to the late publication of economic indicators by the Central Bureau of Statistics, since the last census of economic indicators in Syria dates back to 2017, this leads to an economic uncertainty.

The aim of this research is to use Nowcasting to obtain forecasts for the current and recent past (2018-2019) of the growth rates (investment, consumption, economic growth) to mitigate the economic uncertainty measured by the difference between the economists' expectations about Trend of economic indicators.

The results indicate that the monthly inflation data (2007-2019) contain information that allows Now casting (2018-2019) of growth rates (investment - household consumption - economic growth) well. This allows the current track of indicators to be tracked and leads to the mitigation of economic uncertainty, the formulation of economic policies and effective decisions for the next phase in this light.

Author Biographies

Yomn Mansour , Tishreen University

 Professor – The Department Of Statistics – Faculty Of Economy

Roula Ismail , Tishreen University

 Assistant Professor – The Department Of Statistics – Faculty Of Economy 

Khder Alakkari, Tishreen University

 Postgraduate Student At The Department Of Statistics – Faculty Of Economy 

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Published

2021-03-10

How to Cite

1.
منصور ي, إسماعيل ر, العكاري خ. Nowcasting As An Approach To Mitigate Economic Uncertainty In Syria. Tuj-econ [Internet]. 2021Mar.10 [cited 2024Nov.25];42(6). Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/econlaw/article/view/10335

Issue

Vol. 42 No. 6 (2020): Tishreen University Journal for Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Series

Section

Articles

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