Forecasting The Indicators Of Foreign Trade In Syria Dr. Maain Dyoub * Moder Yousef **

Authors

  • Maain Dyoub Tishreen University
  • Moder Yousef Tishreen University

Abstract

The aim of this study was to apply Box- Jenkins methodology represented by ARIMA models, to forecast some indicators of foreign trade in Syria, and to know if these models  are effective in forecasting. The main results were: -The time series for the indicator of trade exposure in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences.-The time series for the indicator of import- export covering  in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences.

- ARIMA (1,1,1) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of trade exposure, and it is effective model.

- ARIMA (2,1,0) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of import- export covering, and it is effective model.

Author Biographies

Maain Dyoub , Tishreen University

Professor, Department Of Economics

Moder Yousef , Tishreen University

Postgraduate Student- Department Of Economics

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Published

2021-05-31

How to Cite

1.
ديوب م, يوسف م. Forecasting The Indicators Of Foreign Trade In Syria Dr. Maain Dyoub * Moder Yousef ** . Tuj-econ [Internet]. 2021May31 [cited 2024Nov.25];43(2). Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/econlaw/article/view/10596

Issue

Vol. 43 No. 2 (2021): Tishreen University Journal for Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences

Section

Articles

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