Using Box-Jenkins Methodology For Forecasting Of Cow's Milk Production In The Province Of Tartous

Authors

  • Ahmed Ahmed Tishreen University
  • Majd Al-Hussein Tishreen University

Abstract

This study aimed to specify the best model that represents the stochastic process that generated the data of cow's milk production in Tartous governorate. The goal was to identify the time trend status of production growth and forecast the future production of cow's milk in Tartous. This was achieved by using Box-Jenkins methodology which based mainly on the stochastic models ARIMA, using annual time series during the period of 1988-2018.

The study indicated that the series was stationary around a downward trend. So, milk production in Tartous was shrinking over time. The results concluded that ARIMA (2,0,0) with deterministic trend and constant term is the best model among other models based on specific statistical criterions and tests. The proposed model used to forecast milk production up to 2023. Forecasts indicated that production will continue to decline over the next few years.  

Author Biographies

Ahmed Ahmed, Tishreen University

assisstant professor

Majd Al-Hussein, Tishreen University

postgraduate student

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Published

2021-07-13

How to Cite

1.
أحمد أ, الحسين م. Using Box-Jenkins Methodology For Forecasting Of Cow’s Milk Production In The Province Of Tartous. Tuj-econ [Internet]. 2021Jul.13 [cited 2024Nov.25];43(3). Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/econlaw/article/view/10753

Issue

Vol. 43 No. 3 (2021): Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Series

Section

Articles

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