نمذجة العلاقة بين مكونات معدل النمو السكاني وكل من المستويين التعليمي والصحي في سورية باستخدام تحليل الارتباط القانوني
Abstract
بهدف تحليل هيكل العلاقة المتبادلة بين مكونات معدل النمو السكاني من ولادة ووفاة وهجرة واثنين من أشد العوامل تأثيراً فيها وهما المستويين التعليمي والصحي في سورية وبناء نماذج رياضية تمثل هذه العلاقة تم استخدام طريقة تحليل الارتباط القانوني، وذلك لعدد من المؤشرات التعليمية والصحية المؤثرة على مكونات معدل النمو السكاني (معدل المواليد الخام، معدل الوفيات الخام، معدل صافي الهجرة).
وقد تم التوصل بنتيجة البحث إلى إثبات وجود علاقة قوية جداً ودالة إحصائياً بين مكونات معدل النمو السكاني وكلاً من المستوى التعليمي والصحي. وتبين أن الوفاة تتأثر بشدة بكل من المستوى التعليمي والصحي بينما تتأثر الهجرة بشدة بالمستوى الصحي.
This research uses canonical correlation analysis in the examination of the structure of mutual relationship between the components of population growth rate (birth, death and migration) and the levels of education and health in Syria.
Results prove the existence of a strong relationship that is statistically significant between the components of rate of population growth and the educational and health levels. Death is strongly influenced by both levels, while migration is strongly affected by the health level .
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