استخدام نموذج الأجيال المتداخلة في دراسة أثر التدخل في القطاع المالي على النمو الاقتصادي
Abstract
بينت كثير من الدراسات أن سياسات التدخل في القطاع المالي تلعب دورا سلبيا في عملية النمو الاقتصادي. دراسات أخرى واعتمادا على إحصاءات واقعية متعلقة ببعض البلدان بينت أن بعض هذه السياسات يمكن أن يلعب دورا ايجابيا في النمو الاقتصادي للبلدان. في هذا السياق، هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى الوقوف على الدور الذي يمكن أن تلعبه السياسات التدخلية في القطاع المالي في عملية النمو الاقتصادي للبلدان من خلال استخدام نموذج رياضي حقيقي هو نموذج الأجيال المتداخلة و قد تم دراسة التأثير المحتمل لتلك السياسات على مستوى ادخار الأفراد. تظهر نتائج الدراسة أن السياسات التدخلية عموما تؤثر بشكل سلبي على مستوى الاستثمار وبالتالي تراكم رأس المال على المدى طويل الأجل مما قد يضر بعملية النمو الاقتصادي للبلدان. أما في الاقتصادات التي يكون فيها معدل الادخار مرتفع فيكون تأثير مثل هذه السياسات إيجابي من خلال تأثيرها على فعالية تخصيص الموارد للاستثمار. Many studies showed that interventionist policies play negative role on the economical growth process. Others, based on realistic statistics related to some countries, showed that some of this politics can play positive role on the economical growth of these countries. In this course, this study aimed to stand on the role that the interventional polices may play on the economical growth using real mathematical model that is The Overlapping Generations Model where a study of probable effect of these policies on individual saving level took place. Results show that interventionist policies affect negatively on investment level accordingly capital stock accumulation on the long term. But in the countries with high saving level, the effect of such policies is positive through its effect on the efficiency of resources allocation of investment.Downloads
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