التوزيع الاحتمالي الأمثل لدراسة خسائر حوادث السيارات وقياس الخطر دراسة تطبيقية على الشركة الوطنية وشركة المشرق العربي للتامين
Abstract
The concerned authorities shall take all necessary measures to reduce the number of traffic accidents, such as expanding roads, bridges, and tunnels, and the integrating traffic safety measures on the networks of these roads to reduce traffic accidents. However, the number of these accidents remains high, and is one of the leading causes of death, and disabilities, and material losses, Where the frequency of the accidents occurred during the period covered was / / and the average loss resulting from one accident, was / /SP, Here are the most significant findings of the research:
-The probability distribution of the total losses was determined by the probability distribution of the number of accidents and the probability distribution of the loss values resulting from the accident investigation.
-The expected value for the total loss was /3024.856953/ and the coefficient of variation was /1957234294.502638/ SP.
- There is a difference between the expected value of the total losses and the premium paid to the Syrian Federation of Insurance Companies.
- The risk value based on the average of the total loss was 1.22% of the average loss size.
تعمل الجهات المعنية على اتخاذ كافة الاجراءات والتدابير اللازمة لتخفيض عدد الحوادث المرورية, كشق الطرقات وتوسيعها وإقامة الجسور والأنفاق, ونشر وسائل السلامة المرورية على شبكات هذه الطرق لتخفيف الحوادث المرورية, الا انها تبقى ذات معدلات مرتفعة, وتعد من اكثر الاسباب المؤدية لحدوث الوفيات والاعاقات والخسائر المادية, حيث بلغ معدل تكرار الحادث خلال الفترة المدروسة/ /, كما بلغ متوسط الخسارة الناجمة عن الحادث الواحد ما مقداره/ / ليرة سورية, ويمكن ان نبين اهم النتائج التي توصل اليها البحث بالآتي:
- تم تحديد التوزيع الاحتمالي للخسارات الكلية من خلال التوزيع الاحتمالي لعدد الحوادث والتوزيع الاحتمالي لقيم الخسائر الناجمة عن تحقق حوادث السيارات.
- بلغ التوقع الرياضي للخسارة الكلية/3024.856953/ ليرة سورية وبلغ تباينها/1957234294.502638/ ل.س.
- يوجد فرق بين التوقع الرياضي للخسارات الكلية وبين قسط التامين المدفوع الى الاتحاد السوري لشركات التامين.
- بلغت قيمة الخطر بالاعتماد على متوسط مجموع الخسائر 1.22% من قيمة متوسط حجم الخسارة.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
-
The authors retain the copyright and grant the right to publish in the magazine for the first time with the transfer of the commercial right to Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences
Under a CC BY- NC-SA 04 license that allows others to share the work with of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal. Authors can use a copy of their articles in their scientific activity, and on their scientific websites, provided that the place of publication is indicted in Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences . The Readers have the right to send, print and subscribe to the initial version of the article, and the title of Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Publisher
-
journal uses a CC BY-NC-SA license which mean
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
-
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
-
NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
-
ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.