المحددات الرئيسة للادخار القومي في سورية دراسة قياسية للفترة 1980-2012 م

Authors

  • عدنان العربيد
  • ربا كنيفاتي

Abstract

يعد الادخار من أهم مؤشرات النمو الاقتصادي وعاملاً هاماً في تمويل الاستثمار المحلي وصولاً إلى رفع معدل النمو الاقتصادي.يهدف البحث انطلاقاً من ذلك إلى البحث عن المتغيرات التي تؤثر في سلوك الادخار القومي في سورية، حيث يقوم البحث أولاً باختيار المتغيرات و من ثم اختبار سكون السلاسل الزمنية الخاصة بالمتغيرات المختارة ومدى معنويتها، وأخيراً استخدام التكامل المشترك و نموذج تصحيح الخطأ.يخلص البحث إلى وجود أثر إيجابي لكل من معدل التضخم و معدل النمو الاقتصادي الحقيقي في الادخار القومي و تأثير سلبي للدخل القومي المتاح في الادخار القومي، كما أن معدل تصحيح الخطأ معنوي و نسبتة 100% ، مما يشير إلى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الأجل بين الادخار القومي والمتغيرات المستقلة موضوع البحث.

Saving is an important indicator of economic development as it is an element which finances domestic investment to achieve economic growth. The purpose of this research is to determine the variables that affect Syria’s national savings, by testing the expected variables, applying the unit root test on the time series of the variables, then using the Johansen cointegration test and an error correction model. The conclusion is that inflation and real economic growth positively affect national saving whereas national disposable income has a negative effect. The speed of adjustment is significant and 100% which indicates that there is cointegration between the variables of the study and national savings.



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Published

2014-03-16

How to Cite

1.
العربيد ع, كنيفاتي ر. المحددات الرئيسة للادخار القومي في سورية دراسة قياسية للفترة 1980-2012 م. Tuj-econ [Internet]. 2014Mar.16 [cited 2025Jan.28];36(2). Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/econlaw/article/view/879

Issue

Vol. 36 No. 2 (2014): العلوم الاقتصادية والقانونية

Section

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