Predicting Traffic Accidents In Lattakia Governorate Using ARIMA Models

Authors

  • Taleb Ahmad Tishreen University
  • Nour Samir Ali Tishreen University

Abstract

This research aims to study the reality of traffic accidents in Lattakia Governorate, including deaths and injuries, and the resulting difficulties, due to the factors causing their occurrence.

And study the concept of ARIMA models and the steps to apply these models. In addition to predicting the number of traffic accidents in Lattakia Governorate for the coming period from 2021_2025, perhaps the most famous models used in the prediction process is the integrated Auto regression model with the moving average ARIMA, which was used in this research to predict traffic accidents in Lattakia Governorate, and we have reached this research after a test Stability of the time chain within 60 months from 2016 to 2020 and analyzing it and choosing the appropriate ARIMA model to the following results: The model that makes the series stable when taking the difference from the second rank  is Arima (1.2.1) , and has also been reached as it is possible to build a model to predict the number of traffic accidents in Lattakia depending on models ARIMA The data predicted has been obtained regarding the number of traffic accidents until the end of 2025 .

Downloads

Published

2023-05-07

How to Cite

1.
طالب أحمد, نور سمير علي. Predicting Traffic Accidents In Lattakia Governorate Using ARIMA Models. Tuj-econ [Internet]. 2023May7 [cited 2024Nov.25];45(1):349-67. Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/econlaw/article/view/15002

Issue

Vol. 45 No. 1 (2023): Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences

Section

Master student researches

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

  • The authors retain the copyright and grant the right to publish in the magazine for the first time with the transfer of the commercial right to Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences

     Under a CC BY- NC-SA 04 license that allows others to share the work with of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal. Authors can use a copy of their articles in their scientific activity, and on their scientific websites, provided that the place of publication is indicted in  Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences   .  The Readers have the right to send, print and subscribe to the initial version of the article, and the title of Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Publisher

  • journal uses a CC BY-NC-SA license which mean

    You are free to:

    • Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
    •  
    • The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

  • Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.

  • NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.

  • ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.

  • No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.