مكونات السلسلة الزمنية لدرجات الحرارة في محطة طرطوس

Authors

  • ربا علي

Abstract

تمت دراسة المركبات الأربعة لظاهرة درجة الحرارة (الصغرى والعظمى) وهي الموسمية (S) والنزعة أو الاتجاه العام (T) والدورية (C) والعشوائية (I) لمدينة طرطوس. واستعملت أربع طرائق مختلفة (طريقة متوسط النسب المئوية، طريقة النسبة المئوية للاتجاه العام، طريقة النسبة للمتوسط المتحرك، طريقة الوصلات النسبية) في طرح المركبة الموسمية ومن ثمّ تحديد الدليل الموسمي. فبيّن الاستنتاج الإحصائي بأن طريقة متوسط النسب المئوية يمكن استعمالها في التنبؤ بدرجة الحرارة لسنة 2003 اعتماداً على السجل التاريخي للفترة (1957-2002). وبعد طرح مركبات الاتجاه العام والموسمية والعشوائية ظهرت مركبة الدورية واضحة في هذه الظاهرة. ثم تمّ تطبيق بعض الفحوصات الإحصائية المعروفة مثل المعدّل، والانحراف المعياري، والاحتمالية المتجمعة التي بيّنت وجود تطابق ما بين القيم التاريخية والمتنبأ بها. The four components of temperature (max., min.) phenomena, seasonal(S), Trend(T), cyclical(C), and random (I) for Tartous city have been studied. Four different methods (Average percentages method, Percentage of the general trend method, The ratio of the moving average method, Link Relative method) are used to deduct the (S) components and seasonal index for each method is determined. The statistical inferences pointed that the Average percentages method can be used in the prediction of temperature. for the year 2003 depending on a historical record (1957-2002). The result of this deduction showed that the temperature is a cyclical phenomena. The known statistical test like mean, Standard deviation and cumulative probability have been done which showed a good correlation between the predicted and historical data.

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Published

2017-04-20

How to Cite

1.
علي ر. مكونات السلسلة الزمنية لدرجات الحرارة في محطة طرطوس. Tuj-eng [Internet]. 2017Apr.20 [cited 2024Dec.27];38(1). Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/engscnc/article/view/2733

Issue

Vol. 38 No. 1 (2016): العلوم الهندسية

Section

Articles

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