Integration between Earned Value Method and risk analysis to monitor and track the risks of construction projects
Abstract
The phase of monitoring and tracking the risks of construction projects is crucial to ensure the success of the project and achieve its objectives, as it includes all the necessary processes to apply the corrective measures to deal with risks appropriately. This phase is followed by internationally-known analytical methods such as the Earned Value Method (EVM), which evaluates the project’s performance and predicts future performance. However, it fails in calculating the effects of risk events on the final project cost and its completion time.
The research aims to develop a framework for integration between the earned value method and risk analysis based on BIM technology and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and apply it to a case of a residential construction project with the aim of helping project managers to provide accurate insights into project performance and predict potential problems before they occur, through conclusion of a new estimate (EAC) that includes the basic estimate plus the risk exposure cost, and the calculation of a new performance indicator resulting from dividing the new estimate by the basic project budget. The results have shown that if integration is conducted between EVM and risk analysis, it will be noted that there is a cost overrun of 39% for month 11 of project execution, and by 40% for the 12th month of project execution, thus providing a comprehensive overview of identifying sources of problems and proposing appropriate solutions to treat or prevent them.
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