التنبؤ بزمن الصيانة باستخدام السلاسل الزمنية

Authors

  • أيمن يوسف
  • حاتم المحمودي
  • تغريد علي

Abstract

This research includes a methodology to study the times of machine repairs of the recorded data for the time of Breakdown Time as a time series, and to analyze them in order to arrive at the best predictive model of repair times for later periods. In order to make decisions and measures for the proper planning of maintenance activities, Jenkins In building the four-phase time series model, recognition, estimation, diagnosis and prediction, The R-code package was applied to statistical applications and programmers.

The results showed that the smallest value of Bayesian Information Criterion )BIC( was   AR (1) and MA (0). The predicted model is AR (1) and can be written in general form Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA (1, 0, 0) for the studied time series.

After checking the stationary of the time series, the machine repair time was predicted for five subsequent periods, and the new time series was plotting.

التنبؤ بزمن الصيانة باستخدام السلاسل الزمنية

يتضمن هذا البحث منهجية لدراسة أزمنة إصلاحات الآلات باستخدام البيانات المسجلة التي تخص زمن إصلاح الأعطال Breakdown Time كسلسلة زمنية، والعمل على تحليلها للوصول إلى أفضل نموذج تنبؤي بأزمنة الإصلاح لفترات لاحقة بغية اتخاذ القرارات والتدابير اللازمة للتخطيط الجيد لأنشطة الصيانة، تم دراسة استقرار السلسلة ومن ثم  استخدمت منهجية Box-Jenkins   في بناء نموذج السلسلة الزمنية وفق أربعة مراحل هي التعرف والتقدير والتشخيص والتنبؤ، تم تطبيق الحزمة البرمجية R لإجراء التطبيقات والبرامج الإحصائية.

أظهرت النتائج أن أصغر قيمة للمعيارBIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) المحدد لـنموذج ARMA أعطى نموذج التنبؤ AR(1)  و MA(0) والذي يمكن كتابته بالشكل العام ARIMA(1, 0, 0)   للسلسلة الزمنية المدروسة.

بعد التحقق من استقرار السلسلة، تمت عملية التنبؤ بزمن إصلاح الآلة لفترات لاحقة، ورسم السلسلة الزمنية الجديدة.

Downloads

Published

2018-09-17

How to Cite

1.
يوسف أ, المحمودي ح, علي ت. التنبؤ بزمن الصيانة باستخدام السلاسل الزمنية. Tuj-eng [Internet]. 2018Sep.17 [cited 2024Nov.23];39(4). Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/engscnc/article/view/3912

Issue

Vol. 39 No. 4 (2017): العلوم الهندسية

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2018 ttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

The authors retain the copyright and grant the right to publish in the magazine for the first time with the transfer of the commercial right to Tishreen University Journal for Research and Scientific Studies - Engineering Sciences Series

 Under a CC BY- NC-SA 04 license that allows others to share the work with of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal. Authors can use a copy of their articles in their scientific activity, and on their scientific websites, provided that the place of publication is indicted in  Tishreen University Journal for Research and Scientific Studies - Engineering Sciences Series   .  The Readers have the right to send, print and subscribe to the initial version of the article, and the title of  Tishreen University Journal for Research and Scientific Studies - Engineering Sciences Series     Publisher

journal uses a CC BY-NC-SA license which mean

You are free to:

  • Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
  •  
  • The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.

 

  • Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
  • NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
  • ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
  • No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.

Most read articles by the same author(s)