Predicting of Traffic Accident in Lattakia City Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

This study constitutes a preliminary step to develop a mathematical model for predicting traffic accidents in the city of Lattakia, based on a number of external factors, which include engineering characteristics, traffic incursions, and traffic accident data. As for its main goal, it is to reduce the number of traffic accidents expected in the future on the main streets in the city, as the study was conducted on various arterial streets in them in terms of their importance and in terms of the number of traffic accidents recorded on them, and in terms of the diversity of their engineering characteristics, in order to have sufficient familiarity with the traffic conditions in The city for various reasons, does not depend on the human behavior of the drivers or on the characteristics of the vehicle.

A statistical analysis of traffic accident data for the years 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 was conducted on urban streets in Lattakia, where accidents were classified according to their severity, time of occurrence and place of their occurrence, and the necessary data were collected and digitized within a software environment in Microsoft Excel, and then a model was built Predicting the use of the artificial neural networks tool in the MATLAB program, in which data for 319 traffic accidents that were recorded in the years 2015, 2016 and 2017, were entered, which were divided into three groups (training, validation and testing). The structural neural network (10-10-1) gave high values ​​of the correlation coefficient, as the total R value during the three stages was 0.931236, which is very close to one, and therefore the designed network is ideal and achieves the response to predict traffic accidents monthly with very high accuracy.