Time Series Analysis Using Box-Jenkins Methodology (Applied Study On Students Of The Faculty Of Science at Tishreen University)

Authors

  • Ahmad alwassouf Tishreen University
  • Tamim Alia Tishreen University
  • Nadeem Ibraheem Tishreen University

Abstract

The ministry of Higher education is keen to develop university admission procedures in line with the student's skills , and to achieve the best inputs to the educational process and improve the graduates' qualifications to suit the requirements of the labor market .

This development occurs by addressing  the challenge facing the education sector especially in the current situation  in the country and its impact on educational institutions including Tishreen University in many respects including significant changes in the number of students so it was necessary to conduct a study aimed at :

1-Knowing the behavior that the time series represented to number of students accepted   and those that represented to number of graduates and the extent of their stationary over time.

2-to find a statistical  model to predict the number of students expected to be admitted to Faculty of science for the coming year, as well as the number of graduates from the same college .

The study found that the best model for each of the numbers accepted in the Faculty of science and the number graduates using the methodology of the Box-Jenkins is autoregressive model of the first rank ARIMA(1.1.0) .

The Syrian crisis has also adversely affected the stability of student numbers  over time.

 

Keywords : Box-Jenkins  - ARIMA  Models – Forecasting – Stability .

         

Author Biographies

Ahmad alwassouf, Tishreen University

Associate Professor , Department of Statistics, Faculty of science

Tamim Alia, Tishreen University

Professor , Higher Institute of Environmental Research

Nadeem Ibraheem, Tishreen University

Master Student , Department of Statistics , Faculty of science

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Published

2021-07-07

How to Cite

1.
الوسوف ا, عليا ت, ابراهيم ن. Time Series Analysis Using Box-Jenkins Methodology (Applied Study On Students Of The Faculty Of Science at Tishreen University) . TUJ-BA [Internet]. 2021Jul.7 [cited 2024May2];43(3). Available from: https://journal.tishreen.edu.sy/index.php/bassnc/article/view/10682

Issue

Vol. 43 No. 3 (2021): Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Basic Sciences Series

Section

Articles

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